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Global Stack's avatar

Useful translation and summary. The detail that stuck with us is the UnifiedBus protocol being made openly accessible, with the most downloads in Silicon Valley. We think that is the pattern repeating: openness at one layer just moves the contest to another. Huawei opens the interconnect standard while supply stays constrained, so the bottleneck shifts from software (CUDA) to silicon supply and supply chains. The real competition now is over architecture, not individual chips. We made a similar argument about Meta in our October essay, Meta's EU AI Detour, where regulatory friction moved through the stack layers in the same way.

Dmitry Mintz's avatar

Huawei says overseas Ascend supply will remain limited for now: Chinese customers come first, and foreign supply is largely reserved for buyers that lack alternatives or want a second supplier. Separately, Eric Xu expects the broader AI supply chain to return to something like supply-demand balance only around 2029.

For a buyer outside China, that makes availability itself part of the cost.

Kazakhstan is where both ends are visible. It acceded to Pax Silica on 25 June and on 16 July signed the agreement founding WAICO, one of twenty-nine founding states. Huawei’s Kazakh office presented the Ascend 950 and the Atlas platform in May and reported more than two hundred active partners, naming no installation. The two machines the country has on the TOP500, Alem.Cloud and Al-Farabium at 20.48 and 17.93 petaflops, run on NVIDIA H200.

Compute on offer and compute deployed are separate categories. The Q&A dates the constraint on the first. What would date the second is an actual overseas deployment by a buyer that had an alternative, with the terms attached. The Q&A does not describe one.

Kazakhstan’s dates and machines:

https://dmitrymintz.substack.com/p/the-two-panda-agreement

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