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Leon Liao's avatar

The fact that He Lifeng personally stepped in suggests that China is preparing to retaliate.

Trump may reach a friendly understanding with Xi Jinping, but unlike China, he has limited ability to restrain individual agencies from advancing their own agendas.

These measures are being advanced continuously by Congress and professional bureaucracies across the U.S. government, often independently of whatever understanding may have been reached at the presidential level. This institutional fragmentation is one of the most difficult features of the China–U.S. relationship.

U.S. policy is becoming increasingly systematic. Export controls, tariffs, FCC equipment authorization, sanctions, Entity Lists and investment restrictions are gradually merging into a comprehensive framework governing market access, technology diffusion and critical infrastructure. Rather than one dramatic escalation, Washington is constructing a permanent architecture of selective decoupling.

When agreements reached at the highest level cannot constrain subsequent restrictions, Beijing has little reason to rely on verbal assurances. The most effective response available to China remains tighter controls over rare-earth exports.

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