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ChinArb's avatar

Geopolitechs, look at the fine print. This is Industrial Hygiene, not just Retaliation.

You are linking this to Trump's "Secondary Tariffs." While the timing is political, the logic is purely Industrial Dominance.

1. Starving the Competition (Solar-Grade) Why extend duties on US/Korean polysilicon? Because China dominates 90% of the global solar supply chain. By locking US producers (like Hemlock) and Korean producers (like OCI) out of the world's biggest market (China), Beijing is starving them of revenue. Without access to the Chinese "End User," these foreign competitors cannot scale. They wither and die. It ensures that the "Solar King" (China) faces no usurpers.

2. The Critical Exception (Electronic-Grade) Did you catch the exclusion?

"This ruling does not apply to electronic-grade polysilicon used in semiconductors."

This is the System B rationality test.

Solar Poly: We dominate it -> Tariff it to death.

Chip Poly: We still need it -> Let it flow. Beijing never lets "Anger" get in the way of "Supply Chain Security." They only shoot where they are bulletproof.

3. Trump's "Secondary Tariff" Trap Trump's move to tariff anyone trading with Iran/Venezuela is an attempt to globalize US Law via the Customs Border. It is the "Weaponization of Consumption." But Physics has a loophole: The Dark Fleet.

System A says: "If you buy Iranian oil, pay 25%."

System B responds: "This isn't Iranian oil. It's 'Malaysian Blend' mixed at sea."

The tariff wall is high, but the smugglers are digging tunnels.

Conclusion: MOFCOM is playing Go (Weiqi)—securing territory (Polysilicon). Trump is playing Poker—bluffing with chips he might not be able to cash (Secondary Tariffs). One controls the Factory; the other tries to control the Register.

Rafael Silva's avatar

Much more is still needed. Trump better withdraw from his Iranian adventurism. Or else.

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